Final Report and Recommendations of the Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena
Between May 2019 and September 2020, the United States Institute of Peace convened a bipartisan senior study group to consider the factors that have reshaped the Red Sea arena. The study group determined that, in recent years, the geopolitical and geo-economic dynamics of the Horn of Africa have become tied to the Middle East and broader Indian Ocean in a manner unprecedented in the last century. However, U.S. strategy in this evolving environment has struggled to keep pace with these interconnected, complex, and transregional dynamics and to account for the region’s increased relevance to U.S. interests. The final report of the senior study group defines U.S. interests within a hierarchy of priorities to assist policymakers in calibrating diplomatic, development, humanitarian, and security interventions and provides recommendations for defending and advancing these interests.
About the Report
In recent years, the geopolitical and geo-economic dynamics of the Horn of Africa have become tied to the Middle East and broader Indian Ocean in a manner unprecedented in the last century. U.S. strategy in this evolving environment has, however, struggled to keep pace with these interconnected, complex, and transregional dynamics and to account for the region’s increased relevance to U.S. interests.
Between May 2019 and September 2020, the United States Institute of Peace convened a bipartisan senior study group to consider the factors that have reshaped the region, referred to here as the Red Sea arena; to define U.S. interests within a hierarchy of priorities to assist policymakers in calibrating diplomatic, development, humanitarian, and security interventions; and to provide recommendations for defending and advancing these interests. The most critical challenges in the region will require multilateral responses bolstered by the appropriate, region-led multilateral architecture, but only U.S. leadership can ensure that effective solutions are brought to bear in responding to shared political, economic, and security threats.
The Final Report and Recommendations of the Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena considers the region as a shared political, economic, and security ecosystem comprised of the eight states of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda) and the states of the Middle East whose intensifying engagement is one of the most significant developments affecting the region (Egypt, Israel, the Gulf states, and Turkey). The term “arena” is used to connote both the transregional nature of this geopolitical ecosystem and the heightened militarization and competition among state actors that increasingly defines it.
Four Pillars of a U.S. Strategic Framework for the Red Sea Arena A political and diplomatic strategy to inoculate the Horn of Africa against the fallout of Middle Eastern rivalries Undertake a sustained diplomatic campaign to broker a détente in the Horn of Africa between the rival Middle Eastern blocs, remove that region as a battleground for their competition, and preserve the sovereignty of the Horn’s states Catalyze a new regional architecture that minimizes contestation and maximizes cooperation Structural reforms to overcome the bureaucratic seams within the U.S. government Designate a special envoy with responsibility for the Red Sea arena OR
Designate the deputy secretary of state as the interagency lead for developing and executing an integrated strategy on the Red Sea arena IN EITHER CASE
Establish an interagency policy committee (IPC) on the Red Sea arena, co-chaired by the National Security Council senior directors for Africa and the Middle East Realignment of U.S. assistance to promote inclusive, legitimate governance and economic growth Designate the Horn of Africa as a priority region under the Global Fragility Act (2019) Require a five-year Integrated Regional Strategy for the Red Sea arena encompassing the State Department, Defense Department, and USAID Designate the USAID administrator as the president’s special assistance coordinator for the Red Sea and establish a USAID Red Sea task force Reinvigorate the ministeriallevel "Tidewater Group" plus the U.N., the AU, IGAD, the IFIs, and the Gulf states with a specific focus on the Red Sea Establish a G20 working group on debt relief for the Horn of Africa to catalyze a dialogue among Paris Club and non-Paris Club creditors Designate the Horn of Africa as a priority region by the Development Finance Corporation Explore qualified industrial zones as mechanisms for promoting regional cooperation among Red Sea states Active congressional engagement Strengthen coordination among the relevant congressional bodies on both a transregional (i.e., Africa and Middle East) and interdisciplinary (i.e., foreign affairs, armed services, appropriations) basis Establish reporting requirements on the destabilizing actions by Middle Eastern states in the Horn of Africa Encourage bipartisan congressional champions to provide particular support to the transitions in Ethiopia and Sudan