The Future of the Security Sector in Ukraine

Executive Summary

The aim of this report is to present practical options for advancing Ukraine’s security sector capabilities to consolidate peace and stability as the country transitions from war to peace; the United States Institute of Peace does not take specific policy positions or advocate for specific forms of assistance. Although winning the war rightly remains Ukraine’s highest priority, this report focuses on the security sector issues at the heart of the country’s ability to win the peace. These include tackling corruption; holding the perpetrators of war crimes accountable; integrating veterans into society; and strengthening civilian security.

Winning the peace is also essential for achieving US strategic aims and interests. Ukraine represents a pivotal flank for the United States and its NATO partners. Investing in Ukraine’s capacity to consolidate peace and stability after the war solidifies the US-led coalition of democracies, allies, and partners and supplements NATO’s efforts to strengthen the alliance’s eastern flank.

Advancing Ukraine’s security sector capabilities to consolidate peace and stability will strengthen Ukraine’s position as a net security provider capable of directly contributing to US alliances and partnerships and protect the integrity of the strategic investments in Ukraine’s security sector made by the United States over the last decade. US and allied support for these reforms will send a strong message to long-term strategic competitors that the United States and its allies and partners can act with coherence and resilience to protect their strategic interests.

The policy options presented in this report are derived from extensive fieldwork; qualitative analysis of official documents; and consultations with Ukrainian, American, and international officials and experts. The report’s analysis and policy conclusions were shaped by multiple discussions with interdisciplinary expert groups, whose members have performed the invaluable role of assessing conditions, challenging assumptions, sharing best practices, and evaluating options for their impact and feasibility.

The report outlines a wide variety of concrete policy options designed to support Ukraine’s security sector as the country transitions from war to peace. These options—both overarching and targeted—identify high-value actions to that end.

Overarching Policy Options

The report outlines five overarching actions.

• Develop an overarching postwar security sector reform framework. Establish principles, a long-term vision, and action steps that build on Ukraine’s 2023–2027 Overarching Strategic Plan for the Reform of the Entire Law Enforcement Sector.
• Establish a postwar security sector coordination platform tied to the G7 Multi-agency Donor Coordination Platform for Ukraine and the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. This platform would coordinate postwar security sector assistance to Ukraine.
• Conduct a comprehensive public expenditure assessment of the postwar security sector. This assessment would include clear and detailed cost projections of Ukraine’s postwar security sector needs, as well as pragmatic projections of Ukraine’s postwar capacity to finance its security sector.
• Support the adoption of technological innovations, including ones supported by artificial intelligence (AI). This adoption would address potential gaps in the capabilities of the security sector to deliver services to Ukrainians.
• Continuously monitor security sector needs and citizens’ expectations. Conduct quarterly surveys of citizens’ justice and security needs across demographic groups and geographic locations. Use the resulting information to shape and prioritize reforms.

Targeted Options

Chapters 1 through 4 offer targeted policy options for supporting Ukraine’s security sector. Chapter 5 summarizes these options.